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Black Friday 2022: Trends & predictions

OCTOBER 4th, 2022

Retailers are seeing a new business model emerge where physical and digital realities coexist, stores never close and shoppers are looking for the next big thing.

We don't yet know what the next Black Friday will bring in 2022; however, given the 2021 data and the evolution of the market when it comes to eCommerce and digital marketing, we can predict which trends will emerge, which will be reinforced and which will be left behind for good.

Here are our predictions:

1. The high season, longer than ever.

Peak season starts earlier and lasts longer than ever:

  • Early shopping: online sales that occurred during the first week of November increased 16% in 2021.

  • In 2021, 23% of holiday sales occurred during the last 2 weeks of the year, a year-over-year increase of 11%.

  • Shopping grew 18% worldwide during the 2 weeks leading up to December 25 and 16% during American Boxing Week: the highest digital growth all season.

2. Inflation, a key factor.

Many shoppers will have inflation on their minds heading into the 2022 season. This is expected to lead to fewer items being purchased at checkout and fewer discounts being offered. Still, overall online sales are expected to grow.

3. Pick up in a physical store.

In 2021, consumers embraced flexible options such as buy online with in-store pickup (BOPIS), which extended the vacation shipping window. U.S. retailers that offered this option experienced a nearly 100% increase in sales in the final days of the season compared to retailers that did not. We advise eCommerce and marketplace retailers to consider the option of offering in-store pickup during the Black Friday season, as 2021 trends reveal that 59% of consumers are interested in this type of option.

4. The importance of Social Media.

In the Black Friday 2021 season, the number of sales generated by seamless social integrations nearly tripled compared to 2020, highlighting the increasingly evident importance of a good social media marketing strategy.

5. Purchases with financing.

In 2021, for the first time, the proportion of online orders placed by credit card fell for the first time. Instead, consumers opted for greater convenience, using financing tools such as "buy now, pay later" (BNPL). These types of purchases increased by 29% over the previous year. We suggest offering Shop Pay Installments to make it easier for shoppers to budget their purchases, which reduces the number of abandoned carts by 28%.

6. Less discounting.

During Cyber Week 2021, the global average discount rate fell from 26% in 2020 to 24%. This trend is expected to continue in 2022, as retailers face a number of supply chain issues, and inflation concerns continue to impact businesses and shoppers globally.

Keeping these predictions in mind when planning and executing your business' Black Friday 2022 online strategy can be crucial to avoid problems and ensure the success of the campaign.

Source: Shopify Partners

If you want to know more about how to focus and perfect your business' online strategy during Black Friday, do not hesitate to contact us!


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